Assessment
Reading force posture change in the Black Sea littoral
A structured view of deployments, exercises, and materiel movement across the past quarter, with confidence stated against each judgement.
18 November 2026
9 min
Insights
Published assessments and analysis.
A selection of writing from the Ossivane analytical team. Editorial pieces sit alongside method notes and field observations - the working, not just the conclusions.
Method
How we score confidence - and why the scale is public
The reasoning behind the Ossivane confidence standard, and how a rating from one analytical desk becomes comparable to another.
04 November 2026
6 min
Assessment
Sahel governance stress: indicators for the coming twelve months
Fragility indicators across four states, tracked against a common framework and updated as new evidence arrives.
22 October 2026
11 min
Field note
Verifying imagery from a contested strike: what we could and could not conclude
A case study in stating uncertainty plainly, and why what we cannot verify belongs in the same place every time.
07 October 2026
7 min
Assessment
Undersea cable exposure across the North Atlantic
A structured view of dependence, redundancy, and observed proximate activity, framed for state-level decisions rather than commercial risk.
24 September 2026
10 min
Method
The intelligence brief as a product
Why the brief format is fixed, and how consistency of structure becomes a decision-support asset under time pressure.
09 September 2026
5 min
Assessment
Coordinated inauthentic behaviour ahead of an allied vote
Observation, attribution, and effect held apart - with explicit confidence for each. What the evidence supports, and what it does not.
27 August 2026
8 min
Field note
Being wrong, on the record
A short note on the accuracy loop, and why the value of an intelligence organisation depends on remembering what it said last month.
13 August 2026
4 min